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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.