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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."